Globalno zatopljenje
Savremena upotreba pojma klimatske promjene podrazumijeva globalno zatopljenje koje je prouzrokovalo čovječanstvo i utjecaj tih promjena na vremenske prilike na Zemlji. Iako je bilo klimatskih promjena u prošlosti, trenutne su znatno brže od svih zabilježenih u historiji Zemlje.[2] Glavni uzrok su emisije stakleničkih plinova, većinom ugljik-dioksida (CO
2) i metana, koje nastaju sagorijevanjem fosilnih goriva u energetske svrhe. Drugi uzročnici emisija jesu ratarstvo, proizvodnja čelika i cementa te gubitak šuma.[3] Na rast temperature također utječu gubici snježnog pokrivača koji reflektira sunčevu svjetlost i otpuštanje ugljik-dioksida iz šuma pogođenih sušama. Sve ovo ubrzava proces globalnog zatopljenja.[4]
Temperature na tlu porasle su dvostruko brže u odnosu na globalni prosjek. Pustinje se proširuju, dok su toplotni valovi i šumski požari sve češći.[5] Povećano zagrijavanje na Arktiku doprinijelo je topljenju permafrosta, lednika i gubitku morskog leda.[6] Povećane temperature također izazivaju snažnije oluje i druge ekstremne vremenske prilike.[7] Zbog promjena okoliša, mnoge vrste primorane su se seliti iz svojih staništa – koralnih grebena, planina, Arktika i drugih sličnih mjesta – dok drugima prijeti opasnost od izumiranja.[8] Ljudima prijeti nestašica hrane i vode, češće i snažnije poplave, toplotni valovi, bolesti i ekonomska šteta. Klimatske promjene također mogu postaći seobu ljudi.[9] Svjetska zdravstvena organizacija smatra da su klimatske promjena najveća prijetnja globalnom zdravlju u 21. stoljeću.[10] Čak i ako se uspije smanjiti buduće zatopljenje, pojedine posljedice – kao što su porast razine mora, zatopljenje i zakiseljenje okeana – potrajat će stoljećima.[11]
Već su osjetne mnoge posljedice trenutne razine zatopljenja, koja je otprilike 1,2 °C. Međuvladin panel o klimatskim promjenama (IPCC) predviđa veće posljedice kad taj broj pređe 1,5 °C.[12] Dodatno zatopljenje povećava rizik prekoračenja klimatskih kritičnih tačaka, od kojih je jedna otapanje Grenlandske ledene ploče.[13] Rješenje problema klimatskih promjena podrazumijeva poduzimanje određenih radnji kojima bi se ograničila količina zatopljenja te prilagodilo trenutnim i predstojećim klimatskim promjenama.[14] Buduće zatopljenje može se ublažiti smanjenjem emisija stakleničkih plinova i uklanjanjem ih iz atmosfere.[14] Da bi se to ostvarilo, bit će potrebno preći s uglja na solarnu i energiju vjetra te povećati učinkovitost energije.[15] Emisije će se dodatno smanjiti prelaskom na električna vozila i toplotne pumpe.[16] Sprečavanje rašumljavanja te intenzivno pošumljavanje može pomoći apsorpciji CO
2.[17] Pojedine zajednice mogu se prilagoditi klimatskim promjenama tako što će poboljšati zaštitu obala, bolje upravljati nepogodama i razviti otpornije usjeve. Rješenja sama po sebi ne mogu smanjiti rizik snažnih, opsežnih i trajnih posljedica.[18]
Zemlje potpisnice Pariskog sporazuma 2015. dogovorile su se da će, poduzimanjem raznih mjera ublažavanja, zadržati razinu zatopljenja "ispod 2 °C". Međutim, i kad se uzmu u obzir obaveze propisane sporazumom, temperatura bi se do kraja stoljeća mogla povisiti do otprilike 2,7 °C.[19] Da bi se porast temperature zaustavio na 1,5 °C bit će potrebno prepoloviti emisije do 2030. te doseći nulte neto stope do 2050.[20]
Uzroci
urediKlimatske promjene na Zemlji su odgovor na vanjske utjecaje, uključujući one vezane za stakleničke gasove i varijacije u kretanju Zemlje u orbiti oko Sunca,[21][22] promjene u sunčevoj aktivnosti i vulkanske erupcije.[23] Učinak nijednog od navedenih faktora nije trenutan. Termalna inertnost okeana na Zemlji i spori odgovori ostalih posrednih učinaka znači da Zemljina trenutna klima nije u ravnoteži. Pojedine studije pokazuju da čak i ako bi se staklenički gasovi stabilizirali na nivoima iz 2000 godine, i dalje bi se nastavilo zagrijavanje za otprilike 0,5 °C.[24] Globalno zamračenje, odnosno postepeno smanjenje intenziteta direktnog Sunčevog sjaja na površinu Zemlje, moglo bi djelimično ublažiti globalno zagrijavanje od kraja 20. vijeka. Naučnici su procijenili s pouzdanošću od 66-90% da su efekti izazvane aerosolima, uz vulkansku aktivnost, usporili globalno zatopljenje, kao i da bi staklenički gasovi prouzrokovali dosta veće zatopljenje.[25]
Efekat staklenika
urediPostoji naučni konsenzus da je porast atmosferskih stakleničkih gasova uzrokovan ljudskim djelovanjem i da je izazvao veći dio zatopljenja posmatrano od početka industrijske ere do danas, pri čemu ovo zatopljenje ne može biti zadovoljavajuće objašnjeno samo prirodnim uzrocima.[26] Ovi uzroci bi trebali biti najjasniji za period od posljednjih 50 godina, pošto je to razdoblje industrijskog procvata kada se desilo najveće povećanje koncentracije stakleničkih gasova i za koje postoje najpotpunija mjerenja.
Efekt staklenika je otkrio Joseph Fourier 1824,[27] a prvi ga je kvantitativno istražio Svante Arrhenius 1896 godine. To je proces putem kog se, emisijom i apsorpcijom infracrvenih zraka i atmosferskih gasova, zagrijava donji dio atmosfere i površine planete.
Tako IPCC smatra da prirodni staklenički gasovi imaju značajan efekat zagrijavanja od oko 33 °C, bez kojih bi Zemlja bila nenastanjiva.[28] Glavni staklenički gasovi su vodena para, koja uzrokuje oko 36-70% od stakleničkog efekta (ne uključujući oblake), ugljik dioksid (CO2), koji uzrokuje 9-26% efekta, metan (CH4), koji uzrokuje 4-9%; te ozon, koji uzrokuje 3-7% ukupnog efekta staklenika.[29] Čovjekova aktivnost od industrijske revolucije do danas je povećala količinu stakleničkih gasova u atmosferi, te dovela do povećanja klimatskih utjecaja zbog CO2, metana, troposferskog ozona, CFCa i dušik suboksida. Koncentracije CO2 i metana su povećane od sredine 18. vijeka za 50% odnosno 250%[30] respektivno.[7] Ovi nivoi su znatno veći nego u bilo koje vrijeme tokom posljednjih 650.000 godina kao razdoblju za koje postoje pouzdaniji podaci dobiveni iz jezgri taloga leda. Manje direktni geološki dokazi pokazuju da su ovako visoke koncentracije CO2 posljednji put bile prije otprilike 20 miliona godina.[31] Budući da je život na Zemlji nastao prije više od 3,5 milijardi godina,[32] to znači da je život na Zemlji vjerovatno u stanju adaptirati se na povećane nivoe ugljik dioksida. Izgaranjem fosilnih goriva proizvedeno je oko tri četvrtine povećanja CO2 iz ljudske aktivnosti tokom proteklih 20 godina. Ostatak je većinom usljed promjena u korištenju zemljišta, naročito zbog krčenja šuma.[33]
Koncentracija CO2 i dalje raste zbog izgaranja fosilnih goriva i promjena korištenja zemljišta. Budućnost stope porasta zavisit će o neizvjesnom ekonomskom, sociološkom, tehnološkom i prirodnom razvoju. Posebni izvještaj IPCCa o scenarijima emisije pruža široki spektar budućih CO2 scenarija, u rasponu od 541 do 970 ppm do 2100 godine.[34]
Aerosoli
urediGlobalno zamračenje, postupno smanjenje u jačini globalnog direktnog zračenja na površinu Zemlje, moglo bi imati djelimično međudjelovanje sa globalnim zagrijavanjem tokom perioda od 1960-1990 godine. Naučnici su utvrdili sa 66-90% sigurnosti da su efekti izazvani ljudskim aerosolima, pored vulkanske aktivnosti, donekle smanjili neke od efekata zagrijavanja koji su nastali zbog stakleničkih gasova.[35] Antropogene emisije drugih onečišćujućih supstanci, posebno sulfatnih aerosola, mogu davati rashladne efekte povećanjem reflektiranja sunčevog zračenja. Ovo se naročito odnosi na hlađenje koje je zabilježeno sredinom dvadesetog vijeka,[36] iako je hlađenje moglo nastupiti većim ili manjim dijelom i zbog prirodnih varijabilnosti.
Ozon
urediOzonske rupe, odnosno stalni pad u ukupnoj količini ozona u Zemljinoj stratosferi, ponekad se uzimaju kao pojava povezana sa globalnim zatopljenjem. Iako postoji nekoliko zajedničkih područja, između ove dvije pojave nema puno povezanosti. Smanjenje stratosferskog ozona utječe na zahlađivanje, ali se značajnije smanjenje količine ozona nije desilo sve do kasnih 1970tih.[37] Ozon u troposferi ima suprotan utjecaj i doprinosi zagrijavanju površine.
Porast temperature
urediProcjenjuje se da je globalna temperatura na površini Zemlje porasla za 0,75 °C u odnosu na period 1860-1900, u skladu sa mjerenjima ali uz ogradu da mjerenja sve do 1950-tih nisu bila preciznija od 1 °C pa je riječ o nepouzdanoj procjeni. Tako se procjenjuje i da je efekat urbanih "toplinskih ostrva" na globalno zatopljenje oko 0,02 °C u periodu od 1900 godine.[38] Od 1979 godine temperature zemljišta su se povećavale oko dva puta brže nego temperature okeana (0,25 °C na deceniju u odnosu na 0,13 °C po deceniji zagrijavanja okeana).[38] Temperature u donjem dijelu troposfere su porasle između 0,12 i 0,22 °C po desetljeću od 1979 godine, prema satelitskim mjerenjima temperature. Na osnovu procjene NASA-e, godina 2005 bila je najtoplija godina otkako postoje pouzdanija instrumentalna mjerenja od kraja 19. vijeka, a toplija je u odnosu na prethodni rekord postavljen 1998 godine za nekoliko stotih dijelova stepena.[39], što je praktično zanemarljivo. Smatra se da su 1998 godine temperature bile neuobičajeno visoke, zbog najjačeg El-Niño efekta u posljednjih 100 godina.[40]
Ekonomska i politička debata
urediSve veća prisutnost naučnih spoznaja o globalnom zatopljenju u javnosti je rezultirala mnogim političkim i ekonomskim raspravama i debatama.[41] Siromašne regije, posebno u Africi, izložene su najvećem riziku od očekivanih efekata globalnog zatopljenja, a njihove emisije stakleničkih gasova su izrazito malehne u odnosu na razvijeni svijet.[42] Pitanje klimatskih promjena je potaklo raspravu o koristima ograničavanja industrijske emisije stakleničkih gasova s obzirom na troškove koje bi takve promjene donijele. Bilo je rasprava u nekoliko zemalja o troškovima i prednostima pronalaženja i korištenja alternativnih izvora energije u cilju smanjenja emisije ugljika.[43] Neki ekonomisti su pokušali procijeniti ukupne neto ekonomske troškove šteta od klimatskih promjena širom svijeta. Takve procjene su do sada bile bez konačnih zaključaka, neke procjene vrijednosti su se kretale od -10 US$ po toni ugljika (tC) (-3 US$ po toni ugljik dioksida) do 350 US$/tC (95 US$ po toni ugljik dioksida), dok prosjek iznosi 43 US$ po toni ugljika (12 US$ po toni CO2).[25] Novije studije pokazale su da "zeleni" pristupi energiji, poput biogoriva (npr. kukuruz-etanola), također rezultiraju u ispuštanju CO2 u atmosferu[44]. Istovremeno, podaci Svjetske Banke govore da je promjena namjene za zemljišta koja su do sada korištena za proizvodnju hrane, u proizvodnju biogoriva, udvostručilo cijenu hrane u svijetu od 2005-2008, povećavajući glad naročito u najsiromašnijim dijelovima svijeta.[45]
Naučni konsenzus i društvo
urediNaučni konsenzus
urediPostoji gotovo jednoglasan naučni konsenzus da se klima zagrijava i da je to uzrokovano ljudskim djelatnostima. Saglasnost je u novijoj literaturi dostigla više od 99%.[47][49] Starija istraživanja pokazala su da se od 90% do 100% klimatologa slaže oko toga da čovječanstvo igra ulogu u uzrokovanju klimatskih promjena. Podaci tih istraživanja prikupljeni su na osnovu konkretnog pitanja i odgovora.[50] Sva naučna tijela nacionalnog ili međunarodnog položaja slažu se s onim mišljenjem.[51] Dostignut je i konsenzus da treba preduzeti odgovarajuće mjere da bi se ljudi zaštitili od uticaja klimatskih promjena. Nacionalne akademije nauka pozvale su svjetske lidere da smanje ispuštanje štetnih gasova.[52]
Naučna rasprava se odvija u člancima iz časopisa koji se stručno recenziraju. Naučnici ih procjenjuju svakih nekoliko godina u izvještajima Međuvladinog panela o klimatskim promjenama.[53] Izvještaj panela o procjeni za 2021. navodi da ljudi "nedvosmisleno uzrokuju klimatske promjene".[47]
Poricanje i dezinformacije
urediNa javnu raspravu o klimatskim promjenama snažno su uticali njihovo poricanje i dezinformacije. Nastali su u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama i otad su se proširili na druge zemlje, naročito na Kanadu i Australiju. Akteri koji stoje iza poricanja klimatskih promjena oblikuju dobro finansiranu i relativno usklađenu koaliciju kompanija za fosilna goriva, industrijskih grupa, konzervativnih analitičkih centara i disidentskih naučnika.[55] Kao i prethodno kod duhanske industrije, glavna strategija tih grupa bila je stvaranje sumnje u naučne podatke i rezultate.[56] Mnogi koji poriču, odbacuju ili drže neopravdanu sumnju u naučni konsenzus o antropogenim klimatskim promjenama označeni su kao "skeptici u pogledu klimatskih promjena". Nekoliko naučnika primijetilo je da je to pogrešan naziv.[57]
Postoje različite varijante poricanja: neki poriču da se zagrijavanje uopšte događa; neki priznaju zagrijavanje, ali ga pripisuju prirodnim činiocima; neki umanjuju negativne uticaje klimatskih promjena.[58] Proizvodnja nesigurnosti u vezi s naukom kasnije je dovela do proizvedene kontroverze – stvaranja uvjerenja da postoji značajna nesigurnost u vezi s klimatskim promjenama u naučnoj zajednici da bi se odgodile promjene politike.[59] Strategije za promoviranje tih zamisli jesu prigovaranje naučnim institucijama i preispitivanje pobuda pojedinačnih naučnika.[58][60] Nerazumijevanje klimatskih promjena dodatno je podstakla eho-komora blogova i medija koji ih poriču.[61]
Javna svijest i mišljenje
urediKlimatske promjene privukle su pažnju međunarodne javnosti krajem osamdesetih godina 20. stoljeća.[62] Zbog zbunjujućeg medijskog izvještavanja početkom devedesetih, ljudi su često miješali klimatske promjene s drugim ekološkim problemima, poput oštećenja ozonskog omotača.[63] U popularnoj kulturi, prvi film koji je dospio do masovne javnosti o ovoj temi bio je Dan poslije sutra 2004, a poslije nekoliko godina premijerno je prikazan dokumentarni film Neprijatna istina Ala Gorea. Knjige, priče i filmovi o klimatskim promjenama pripadaju žanru klimatske fantastike.[62]
Postoje značajna regionalna, spolna, starosna i politička razilaženja kako u zabrinutosti javnosti za klimatske promjene, tako i u njihovom shvatanju. Obrazovanije osobe, a u nekim zemljama žene i mlađe osobe, češće vide klimatske promjene kao ozbiljnu prijetnju.[64] Postoji i jaz među pobornicima u mnogim zemljama,[65] a države s visokim emisijama ugljik-dioksida (CO
2) obično su manje zabrinute.[66] Stavovi o uzrocima klimatskih promjena uveliko se razlikuju među zemljama.[67] S vremenom je zabrinutost porasla do tačke u kojoj većina građana u mnogim zemljama sad izražava visok nivo zabrinutosti zbog klimatskih promjena ili ih posmatra kao globalno vanredno stanje.[65][68] Viši stepen zabrinutosti povezan je sa snažnijom javnom podrškom politikama koje se bave klimatskim promjenama.[69]
Protesti i tužbe
urediPopularnost klimatskih protesta porasla je desetih godina 21. stoljeća. Demonstranti zahtijevaju od političkih vođa da preduzmu mjere za sprečavanje klimatskih promjena. Protesti mogu biti u obliku javnih demonstracija, divesticije fosilnih goriva, tužbi i drugih aktivnosti.[70] U značajne demonstracije spada Školski štrajk za klimu. U toj inicijativi, mladi ljudi širom svijeta protestuju od 2018. tako što petkom izostaju iz škole, nadahnuti švedskom tinejdžerkom Gretom Thunberg.[71] Masovne akcije građanske neposlušnosti grupa poput Pobune protiv istrebljenja protestovale su ometanjem saobraćaja i javnog prevoza.[72] Parnice se sve više upotrebljavaju kao sredstvo za jačanje klimatskih akcija javnih ustanova i kompanija. Aktivisti pokreću i tužbe koje ciljaju na vlade i zahtijevaju od njih da preduzmu ambiciozne mjere ili sprovode postojeće zakone o klimatskim promjenama.[73] Tužbe protiv kompanija koje sagorijevaju fosilna goriva uglavnom traže nadoknadu za gubitak i štetu.[74]
Reference
uredi- ^ IPCC AR6 WG1 2021
- ^ IPCC SR15 Ch1 2018, str. 54: Ove stope promjena koje pokreće čovjek na globalnom nivou daleko premašuju stope promjena koje su potaknule geofizičke ili biosferne sile koje su promijenile putanju Zemljinog sistema u prošlosti…
- ^ Our World in Data, 18 September 2020
- ^ IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary 2021, str. 59: The combined effect of all climate feedback processes is to amplify the climate response to forcing...
- ^ IPCC SRCCL 2019, str. 7: Od predindustrijskog perioda, temperatura vazduha na površini zemlje porasla je skoro dvostruko više od globalne prosječne temperature (visoka pouzdanost). Klimatske promjene... doprinijele su dezertifikaciji i degradaciji zemljišta u mnogim regijama (visoka pouzdanost).; IPCC SRCCL 2019, str. 45: Klimatske promjene igraju sve veću ulogu u određivanju režima šumskih požara uz ljudsku aktivnost (srednja pouzdanost), a očekuje se da će buduća klimatska varijabilnost povećati rizik i ozbiljnost šumskih požara u mnogim biomima kao što su tropske prašume (visoka pouzdanost).
- ^ IPCC SROCC 2019, str. 16: Tokom posljednjih decenija, globalno zagrijavanje dovelo je do široko rasprostranjenog smanjenja kriosfere, sa gubitkom mase ledenih pokrivača i glečera (veoma visoka pouzdanost), smanjenjem snježnog pokrivača (visoka pouzdanost) i obima i debljine arktičkog morskog leda (vrlo velika pouzdanost) ), i povećana temperatura permafrosta (vrlo visoka pouzdanost).
- ^ a b USGCRP Chapter 9 2017, str. 260.
- ^ EPA (19. 1. 2017). "Climate Impacts on Ecosystems". Arhivirano s originala, 27. 1. 2018. Pristupljeno 5. 2. 2019.
Planinski i arktički ekosistemi i vrste su posebno osjetljivi na klimatske promjene... Kako se temperature okeana zagrijavaju i povećava kiselost okeana, izbjeljivanje i odumiranje korala će vjerovatno postati češći.
- ^ Cattaneo et al. 2019; UN Environment, 25 October 2018.
- ^ IPCC AR5 SYR 2014, str. 13–16; WHO, Nov 2015: Klimatske promjene su najveća prijetnja globalnom zdravlju u 21. vijeku. Zdravstveni radnici imaju dužnost da se brinu o sadašnjim i budućim generacijama. Vi ste na prvoj liniji u zaštiti ljudi od klimatskih uticaja – od više toplotnih talasa i drugih ekstremnih vremenskih pojava; od izbijanja zaraznih bolesti kao što su malarija, denga i kolera; od posljedica pothranjenosti; kao i liječenje ljudi oboljelih od raka, respiratornih, kardiovaskularnih i drugih nezaraznih bolesti uzrokovanih zagađenjem okoline."
- ^ IPCC SR15 Ch1 2018, str. 64: Održane neto nulte antropogene emisije CO
2 i opadanje neto antropogenih ne-CO
2 radijacionih sila tokom višedecenijskog perioda bi zaustavile antropogeno globalno zagrijavanje tokom tog perioda, iako ne bi zaustavile porast nivoa mora ili mnoge drugi aspekti prilagođavanja klimatskog sistema. - ^ IPCC SR15 Summary for Policymakers 2018, str. 7
- ^ IPCC AR6 WG1 Technical Summary 2021, str. 71
- ^ a b NASA, Mitigation and Adaptation 2020
- ^ United Nations Environment Programme 2019, str. xxiii, Table ES.3; Teske, ed. 2019, str. xxvii, Fig.5.
- ^ United Nations Environment Programme 2019, Table ES.3 & p. 49; NREL 2017, str. vi, 12
- ^ IPCC SRCCL Summary for Policymakers 2019, str. 18
- ^ IPCC AR5 SYR 2014, str. 17, SPM 3.2
- ^ United Nations Environment Programme 2021, str. 36: "A continuation of the effort implied by the latest unconditional NDCs and announced pledges is at present estimated to result in warming of about 2.7 °C (range: 2.2–3.2 °C) with a 66 per cent chance."
- ^ IPCC SR15 Ch2 2018, str. 95–96: U modelskim putevima bez ili sa ograničenim prekoračenjem od 1,5 °C, globalne neto antropogene emisije CO
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Netehnički izvori
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- Seymour, Frances; Gibbs, David (8. 12. 2019). "Forests in the IPCC Special Report on Land Use: 7 Things to Know". World Resources Institute.
- Yale Climate Connections
- Peach, Sara (2. 11. 2010). "Yale Researcher Anthony Leiserowitz on Studying, Communicating with American Public". Yale Climate Connections. Arhivirano s originala, 7. 2. 2019. Pristupljeno 30. 7. 2018.
Vanjski linkovi
uredi- Klimatski vodič Met Offica – Hidrometeorološki zavod Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva
- Indikatori klimatskih promjena na globalnom nivou Arhivirano 14. 12. 2021. na Wayback Machine – NOAA
- Ishod potpunog topljenja svjetskih polarnih regija – National Geographic
- Procjena globalnog zatopljenja koje je uzrokovalo čovječanstvo od druge polovine 19. stoljeća do danas Arhivirano 28. 12. 2021. na Wayback Machine – Univerzitet u Oxfordu